Single seed b₃ = 24 → axion at ma = 3.51 meV, gaγγ = 2.9 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹ → kill-shot test 2028
BabyIAXO (commissioning 2028) and full IAXO (~2030) will scan exactly this band. If the prediction is wrong, the framework collapses.
Live Prediction from parameters.json
Both values are loaded at page-load from
/AutoGenerated/parameters.json
(keys alp.mass_meV and alp.coupling_GeV_inv).
They are derived from the topological seed b₃ = 24 — no free parameters.
Sensitivity Matrix
The PM prediction's central value and ±10% 1σ band against current and upcoming experimental reaches in the ALP–photon coupling plane.
| Experiment | Year | Mass window ma | Coupling floor gaγγ | Verdict vs PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PM prediction (central) | — | 3.51 meV | 2.9 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹ | — |
| PM 1σ band (±10%) | — | 3.16 – 3.86 meV | 2.61e-11 – 3.19e-11 | — |
| CAST 2017 (current upper bound) | 2017 | ≲ 0.02 eV | ≤ 6.6 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹ | PM allowed (below bound) |
| BabyIAXO Phase 1 | 2028 | 10⁻⁴ – 10⁻¹ eV | ~1.5 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹ | ✓ REACHES PM band — kill-shot |
| IAXO (full) | 2030+ | 10⁻⁴ – 10 eV | ~1.0 × 10⁻¹² GeV⁻¹ | ✓ Buries the band — confirmation |
| ADMX (cavity haloscope) | ongoing | 2 – 40 μeV | ~1 × 10⁻¹⁶ GeV⁻¹ | Wrong mass regime — ADMX scans μeV cavity modes; 3.51 meV is ~100× too heavy for ADMX resonators |
| MADMAX (dielectric haloscope) | ~2030 | 40 – 400 μeV | target ~1 × 10⁻¹⁴ GeV⁻¹ | Still developing; mass window roughly 10× too light, but planned extensions may approach the PM band |
Kill criteria — what would falsify this prediction
BabyIAXO 2028+ will reach sensitivity gaγγ ≈ 1.5 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹ for axion masses around 3.51 meV. Our prediction is gaγγ ≈ 2.9 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹ at ma ≈ 3.51 meV — squarely within the discovery window.
What if BabyIAXO sees nothing?
A null result from BabyIAXO 2028 in the 3.16 – 3.86 meV mass window with gaγγ reach better than 2 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹ would constitute a clean falsification — not an "amendment opportunity." The dependency chain b₃ = 24 → kℷ → χeff → ma has no tunable slack. There is no quietly adjustable parameter we can twist to push the prediction outside the BabyIAXO band; the topological seed forces this exact coupling.
Outcomes
- Confirmation: BabyIAXO detects an axion at gaγγ ≈ 2.9 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹, ma ≈ 3.51 meV → theory CONFIRMED.
- Falsification: BabyIAXO observes NO axion in the 1.5 × 10⁻¹¹ to 2 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹ window across 3.16 – 3.86 meV → G₂ compactification ruled out.
- Marginal: Axion detected at significantly different gaγγ (outside the 95% credible band) → theory needs amendment (e.g. revised χeff or Face-3 moduli normalisation).
Timeline
Milestones from today to first IAXO physics. The PM prediction is fixed — the experimental schedule is the only moving part.
2028 — BabyIAXO commissioning + first physics run reaches
gaγγ ≈ 1.5 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹ across 10⁻⁴ – 10⁻¹ eV.
2030 — full IAXO reaches ≈ 10⁻¹² GeV⁻¹, burying the PM
band by an order of magnitude.
ma – gaγγ plane
Log–log plot of axion mass vs photon coupling. The PM prediction (pink point, ±10% errorbar) sits inside the BabyIAXO 2028 discovery region (green hatched) — visually demonstrating that BabyIAXO's first run is sufficient to falsify the framework.
Dependency chain — single seed to single observable
Every quantity on this page traces back to one topological input: the third Betti number of the G₂ manifold, b₃ = 24.
b₃ = 24 → SEIS–photon coupling (Face 3 moduli) → gaγγ ≈ 2.9 × 10⁻¹¹ GeV⁻¹
If BabyIAXO 2028 scans the 3.16 – 3.86 meV band and finds nothing, the chain breaks at its first link — the framework is falsified.
See §1 Abstract ALP formulas Parameter trace 72-gate certification
Coupling floors quoted are the standard BabyIAXO Phase 1 reach (Armengaud et al. 2019, JCAP 06:047) and the IAXO design report (CDR, 2014). PM 1σ band is conservative ±10%; actual uncertainty is dominated by kℷ precision (better than 1%).